Election Market 2008

Last week, Newsweek made a big stink about their newest presidential election poll. According to their results, Obama had dropped from a 15 point lead over McCain to only a 3 point lead. More importantly, Obama's approval among independents dropped from 48% to 34% - ouch. Given those results, we might expect the Intrade.com election markets to reflect more money moving into the McCain contract and more money moving out of the Obama contract. Has it happened?

It looks like Obama's contract is still near its high...

And McCain's contract has really been hurting...

The Newsweek poll shows Obama ahead of McCain at a 44-41 margin; the Intrade market has Obama ahead of McCain at a 65-31 margin; that is quite a discrepancy. Granted, we're comparing apples to oranges, as the Intrade market follows who the money things will win the election and the Newsweek poll simply asks who a "likely voter" would vote for. Nevertheless, the Intrade numbers might indicate that the election is not even close to as evenly matched at Newsweek might lead you to believe.


    Likely voters are old. People who use Intrade are young.

    Or so I'd guess.